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While world leaders convene in the Brazilian Amazon for the 30th UN Climate Change Conference, it is essential to assess our collective progress in cutting global greenhouse gas emissions.

In spite of 30 years of UN climate summits, nearly 50% of the carbon dioxide accumulated in the atmosphere after the dawn of industrialization has been emitted after the year 1990. Incidentally, 1990 was the publication of the First Assessment Report by the IPCC, which confirmed the danger of anthropogenic climate change. As scientists prepare the upcoming IPCC report, they do so aware that scientific findings remains overshadowed by political agendas. Despite well-intentioned efforts, the world is remains dangerously off track to prevent dangerous global warming.

Unprecedented CO₂ Levels and Carbon-Based Fuel Dependency

Latest figures show that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels reached a new peak of 423.9 parts per million in 2024, with the growth rate from the previous year surging by the biggest annual rise since record-keeping started in the late 1950s. Based on the international carbon monitoring initiative, ninety percent of worldwide carbon dioxide output in last year came from burning fossil fuels, while the remaining 10% was due to land-use changes such as forest clearance and forest fires.

While the increase in carbon emissions from fuels in recent times was propelled by higher use of gas and oil—representing more than 50% of global emissions—coal burning also reached a record high, making up 41%. In spite of Cop28’s global stocktake urging nations to transition away from fossil fuels, collective plans still aim to produce more than double the amount of hydrocarbons in 2030 than aligns with limiting planet heating to 1.5C, with continued extraction of natural gas justified as a lower emission transition fuel.

The Illusion of Eco-Friendly Measures

Instead of concentrating on financial motivators to accelerate the phase-out of carbon fuels, climate policies are overly dependent on feel-good eco-positive solutions that seek to cancel out carbon emissions by afforestation instead of reducing factory discharges. While protecting, expanding, and restoring ecological absorbers like woodlands and marshes is inherently good, research has shown that there is not enough land to achieve the worldwide target of net zero emissions using ecological methods by themselves.

Roughly 1 billion hectares—a territory bigger than the USA—is required to meet carbon neutrality commitments. Over forty percent of this land would need to be converted from existing uses like food production to carbon sequestration projects by the year 2060 at an never-before-seen pace.

Although this ideal restoration could be achieved, woodlands require years to grow and are susceptible to fires, so they cannot be considered as a fast or permanent CO2 retention method, especially in a rapidly shifting climate. As severe temperatures and dryness affect more of the planet, these sincere attempts could actually go up in smoke.

The Weakening of Planetary Absorbers

Scientific evidence indicates that about 50% of the total CO₂ emitted annually stays in the air, while the remainder is absorbed by seas and terrestrial systems. With global heating, these natural carbon sinks are losing efficiency at soaking up CO₂, which means that more carbon accumulates in the air, intensifying climate change. Shifting the reduction responsibility onto the land sector effectively excuses the oil and gas sector from the urgency to cut pollution any time soon.

The Climate Liability and Future Generations

Achieving net zero by 2050 demands CO2 extraction (CDR), which at present depends largely on land-based measures to absorb surplus CO2 from the atmosphere. Emitting companies can simply purchase offsets to compensate for their discharges and proceed with business as usual. At the same time, the planetary heat imbalance caused by the combustion of hydrocarbons keeps on further destabilise the global climate system. Essentially, we are increasing our climate liability to our global account, passing on future generations with an unpayable liability.

To limit the magnitude and duration of exceeding the Paris Agreement temperature goals, the planet eventually needs to go well beyond the neutralising effect of net zero and start to remove cumulative historical emissions to achieve net negative emissions.

The Policy Misrepresentation of Net Zero

According to the most recent data from the international carbon research group, plant-based carbon removal is presently capturing the equal of about 5% of yearly CO2 from fuels, while technology-based CDR accounts for only about one-millionth of the CO2 emitted from fossil fuels. More generous industry estimates suggest around zero point one percent of total global emissions. Without meaning to be controversial, the policy twisting of carbon neutrality is a deceptive gap that takes focus away from the scientific imperative to eliminate the main source of our overheating planet—carbon-based energy.

The Critical Requirement for Definite Steps

Although this research-backed truth should lead discussions at the climate summit, history suggests that polite incrementalism and deference to politics will prevail. Ambiguous promises of future ambition will continue to postpone the urgent need for definite short-term measures. Until leaders have the courage to put a price on carbon to terminate the age of hydrocarbons, we are adding increasing amounts of CO2 to the air, compounding the physical catastrophe currently happening across the globe.

The challenge we confront is straightforward: take real action to the evidence-based situation of our predicament or endure the results of this profound moral failure for generations ahead.