Why Is The Current US Shutdown Distinct (as well as More Intractable)?
Shutdowns are a repeat feature in American political life β but this one feels particularly intractable because of political dynamics along with bad blood between both major parties.
Some government services are temporarily suspended, and about 750,000 people are expected to be put on unpaid leave as both political parties remain unable to reach consensus regarding budget legislation.
Votes aimed at ending the deadlock continue to fall short, and it is hard to see an off-ramp this time because each side β as well as the President β perceive advantages in maintaining their positions.
Here are the four ways in which this shutdown distinct currently.
1. For Democrats, the focus is on Trump β beyond healthcare issues
The Democratic base have insisted for months that their party more forcefully fights the current presidency. Currently the party leadership have an opportunity to demonstrate their responsiveness.
In March, the Senate's top Democrat faced strong criticism for helping pass a Republican spending bill and averting a government closure in the spring. Now he's holding firm.
This presents an opportunity for Democrats to show they can take back certain authority from an administration pursuing its agenda assertively on its agenda.
Opposing the Republican spending plan comes with political risk as citizens generally may become impatient as the dispute drags on and consequences begin to mount.
The Democrats are leveraging the budget standoff to highlight concerns about expiring health insurance subsidies and Republican-approved federal health program reductions for the poor, which are both unpopular.
They are also trying to restrict the President's use of his executive powers to cancel or delay funding authorized legislatively, a practice demonstrated in international assistance and various federal programs.
2. For Republicans, they see potential
The President along with a senior aide have openly indicated of the fact that they perceive an opening to make more of the cutbacks to the federal workforce that have featured the current presidential term so far.
The nation's leader personally said last week that the shutdown had afforded him a "unique chance", adding he intended to cut "opposition-supported departments".
Administration officials said it would be left with the "unenviable task" involving significant workforce reductions to keep essential government services operating should the impasse persist. The Press Secretary said this was just "budgetary responsibility".
The extent of possible job cuts is still uncertain, but the White House has been in discussions with the Office of Management and Budget, the budgeting office, under the leadership of the key official.
The administration's financial chief has already announced the suspension of federal funding for regions governed by of the country, such as NYC and Chicago.
3. There's little trust on either side
Whereas past government closures have been characterised by extended negotiations between the two parties aimed at restoring government services running again, there appears to be minimal cooperative willingness for compromise presently.
Conversely, animosity prevails. The bad blood persisted recently, with Republicans and Democrats blaming each other for causing the impasse.
The legislative leader from the majority party, accused Democrats of not being serious about negotiating, and holding out during discussions "to get political cover".
Simultaneously, the Senate leader made similar charges at the other side, saying that a majority party commitment to discuss healthcare subsidies after operations resume cannot be trusted.
The President himself has escalated tensions through sharing a computer-created controversial depiction featuring the opposition leader along with another senior in the House, in which the representative is depicted with a large Mexican-style sombrero and facial hair.
The representative and other Democrats denounced this as discriminatory, which was denied by the administration's second-in-command.
Fourth, The American Economy faces vulnerability
Analysts expect about 40% of the federal workforce β over 800,000 workers β to be put on unpaid leave due to the government closure.
That will depress spending β with broader economic consequences, as environmental permitting, patent approvals, payments to contractors along with various forms of government activity tied to business comes to a halt.
The closure additionally introduces new uncertainty within economic systems currently experiencing disruption from multiple factors including trade measures, previous budget reductions, immigration raids and artificial intelligence.
Analysts estimate potential reduction of approximately 0.2% off US economic growth for each week it lasts.
But the economy typically recoups the majority of interrupted operations after a shutdown ends, as it would after disruption after major environmental events.
This might explain partially why the stock market have shown limited reaction to the ongoing impasse.
On the other hand, experts indicate should administration officials implement his threat of mass firings, economic harm might become more long-lasting.