Why Trump Achieved a Major Step in the Middle East Yet Struggles Regarding Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Trump and Putin's scheduled talks on the almost four-year conflict in the region have been put on hold.

Reports of an upcoming American-Russian leadership summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.

Just days after President Trump announced he planned to meet Russian President Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.

A initial get-together by the both countries' top diplomats has been called off, too.

"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," President Trump informed the press at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I'll see what transpires."
  • Donald Trump says he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for Putin talks postponed
  • Letdown in Kyiv as President Zelensky leaves Washington without results

The frequently changing summit is another twist in the president's efforts to mediate an end to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a topic of renewed focus for the US president after he orchestrated a ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement in the Palestinian territory.

While making remarks in the North African country recently to commemorate that truce deal, Trump turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.

"We have to get the Russian situation resolved," he said.

Nonetheless, the conditions that converged to make a Middle East success achievable for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for almost four years.

Less Leverage

Per the lead negotiator, the key to unlocking a agreement was Israel's move to attack representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a move that angered America's Arab allies but provided Trump bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Netanyahu into making a deal.

Trump benefited from a history of siding with Israel since his first term, including his choice to move the American embassy to the contested city, to change US policy on the legality of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, more recently, his backing for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.

The US president, in fact, is more popular among Israelis than their prime minister – a situation that gave him special sway over the Israeli leader.

Combine the president's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to secure an agreement.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, the president has significantly reduced influence. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between attempts to pressure Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.

Trump has threatened to impose new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to supply the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could harm the global economy and further escalate the conflict.

At the same time, the US leader has criticized openly Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and pausing weapon deliveries to the nation - only to then back off in the face of worried European partners who warn a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the entire region.

Trump loves to tout his skill to meet and hammer out deals, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to move the war any nearer a resolution.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Trump and Vladimir Putin's summit in August yielded little tangible outcome.

Putin may in fact be using Trump's desire for a settlement – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a means of influencing him.

In July, Putin consented to a summit in the US state at the time when it seemed probable that the president would approve on legislative penalties supported by Senate Republicans. That legislation was subsequently put on hold.

Last week, as reports spread that the White House was considering seriously sending long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the Russian leader phoned Trump who then promoted the possible meeting in Budapest.

The following day, Trump hosted Zelensky at the White House, but left without agreements after a reportedly tense meeting.

Trump maintained that he was not being manipulated by Putin.

"As you are aware, I have been manipulated throughout my career by skilled operators, and I came out really well," he remarked.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

However the president of Ukraine subsequently commented on the sequence of events.

"Once the issue of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for Ukraine – for Ukraine – the Russian side quickly became less engaged in diplomacy," he said.

So, in a short period, Trump has bounced from considering the idea of providing weapons to Ukraine to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and confidentially urging the Ukrainian president to surrender all of Donbas – including land Russian forces has been failed to capture.

He has ultimately decided on calling for a truce along current battle lines – a proposal the Russian government has refused to accept.

During his election campaign last year, the candidate promised that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has subsequently discarded that commitment, saying that ending the war is turning out more difficult than he anticipated.

It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his power – and the challenge of finding a framework for peace when neither side desires, or can afford to, give up the fight.

Patrick Torres
Patrick Torres

A passionate software engineer with over a decade of experience in full-stack development and a love for teaching others.